The peak w/sale in Vic on Jan 4 was around $400/MWh as opposed to the other days in the last couple weeks peaking around $50/MWh so can we assume that repeat heat events will drive similar prices - subject to generator/network delivery failures and wind availability.
The potential $12,900/MWh price tag is a large amount, but is only important if and when it is bid into the network, usually in blocks of 30 minutes or thereabout.
Fortunately we have enough capacity in the system to meet most peaks, but to meet those critical peaks often means sending energy hundreds or thousands of km from all sorts of genset's fired up specifically for that peak. On top of that distributors want their pound of flesh for providing the carrying capacity just for those few critical peak minutes.
Bear in mind these peaks and critical peaks do not often coincide with PV and other renewable's energy availability, so expensive spinning reserves, gas, diesel, and possibly storage technologies are still needed, either in a centralised or decentralised implementation.
Human nature being what it is, the majority of users with HVAC will still want to turn them on, which is fine as long as they're billed for it.
Morbo - yes the cost of the electrons is around 5 or 6 cents/kWh most of the time, but the traffic and congestion costs add a lot to it as well. The un-fairness of the distribution monopoly and flat cost allocation is a government policy and social issue that could be easily, if not uncomfortably, dealt with, but it will cost $.
We need to charge out the prices more equitably to prevent efficient users who don't exacerbate the peaks, or who dont create the critical peaks, from subsidizing the users who don't care about turning down their HVAC or substituting with fans and evap's.
Posted Thursday 17 Jan 2013 @ 12:49:05 am from IP
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