S2S wrote " Some of the smaller cars are running on about 6l per 100km."
My small turbo diesel does 3.8L per 100km, goes like the clappers too
S2S wrote " Some of the smaller cars are running on about 6l per 100km."
My small turbo diesel does 3.8L per 100km, goes like the clappers too
Scooters yes, so long as everyone else is walking or riding a bicycle
;
So how will people in the not too distant future feel about the wanton waste of such a valuable commodity as oil. "You mean they burnt it in a frenzy of gas guzzling cars?, what a waste!"
Finally:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/peak-oil-highlights-need-for-a-unified-policy-20110429-1e0of.html
NSW govt cuts to solar subsidies are big news so maybe they should now move on to cutting coal & oil subsidies.
This is the bottom line, so to speak.
And if it all sounds expensive consider that we are still subsidising oil at a rate of billions of dollars a year, whether through diesel fuel tax rebates or a fringe benefits tax regime that encourages private company car use. As peak oil bites, that's crazy.
Bogans will have a hard time of it, adjusting to Peak Oil, but who wants them anyway, except other bogans.
Whilst the actual word “bogan” has only been in mainstream circulation for around 20 years, historic evidence points to the existence of bogans for many centuries past. It is widely believed that the majority of the members in the first fleet to land in Australia were actually bogan prisoners from the United Kingdom. Therefore, it appears that Australia was actually established by criminally insane bogans who enjoyed drinking, fighting and shooting.
The evolution of the bogan to that of what we know in the present day is largely believed to have commenced in the late 1970’s. The children of ‘generation x’ form much of the current populous, whilst their offspring continue in the same mould as post-modernistic bogans. The adoption of key elements such as the ‘mullet’, the flannelette shirt and the ‘trackie-daks’ are also indicators that the contemporary bogan gains inspiration from fashions of the 1980’s in the era of the ‘bogan renaissance’.
No doubt the bogan will continue to flourish wherever AC/DC is played, or where a VK Commodore is doing a burnout.
Peak oil is a similar policy of restricting supply to increase demand. Don't be surprised for a minute that current oil consumption is regulated purely for financial gain. We don't "need" most of the oil, but in order for wealth to grow, we must "want" to consume. It is a product of economics, otherwise no-one could afford to consume oil to drive and power. The question is with what "other" economic activity can the oil based economy run instead? You can't have the same level of economic activity without a fossil fuel equivalent enabler.
I agree with Eco and Andy on coal. The "peak oil" issue could well be a intentional diversion from the peak coal problem.
Re: peak coal
Most claims of plentiful coal reserves are based on current rates of coal use. In response to the imminent shortage of cheap oil, coal and coal products will be used instead. The rate of coal mining will explode, and the time of "peak coal" will follow soon after that of peak oil.
Everyone addicted to high consumption will continue to insist (like George H W Bush) that their way of life is "not negotiable" until there is no cheap fuel of any kind left.
rockabye said
"so maybe they should now move on to cutting coal & oil subsidies."
hear hear!
However if the government does not mandate higher efficiency standards first and foremost then any such action down the track will be meet with huge public resistance due to the resultant energy price rises. Hence first and foremost we need higher efficiency standard, we need to move people off inefficient products.
It's such a shame that the insulation scheme was such a debacle, insulation is one of the cheapest most reliable ways of improving efficiency.
Catopsillia
Here some interesting information on the timing of these peaks:
"Conclusions
Many peak oil proponents suggest oil either is about to peak, or has already, and that production will fall below demand sometime before 2020.
In addition, many independent researchers believe the world’s natural gas, coal and uranium are likely to peak during the following decade. (The suggested peak dates are: natural gas by 2027, coal “between 2010 and 2048,” and with acute uranium shortages beyond 2030.) This is based on current usage, and does not consider what will happen to demand once the price of oil goes sky high.
When oil peaks, and the price rises, it will cause our fragile, debt-ridden economies to collapse. We will most likely found ourselves in another Great Depression. But the worst will be yet to come. When other fuel sources peak, we will be left with no affordable “bridge fuel” to carry us to a sustainable, renewable future. Whereas oil is mainly used in transportation, natural gas and coal together account for the generation of 60 per cent of our electricity, according to EIA figures. If the grid goes down, modern life is over.
But this isn’t the only problem we will face around this time. There is a slew of related collapses in environmental resources, including soil, water and the minerals that make up fertilizers. For many people, particularly in the Third World, these will be more of a threat than the energy crisis."
From: http://peakgeneration.blogspot.com/p/global-hydrocarbons-peak.html
I hope we (human society) are not so stupid to do this, but given that the continental land mass was once at tropical latitudes millions of years ago, Antarctica may hold large reserves of fossil fuels that some companies might decide are economically viable to extract!
Under existing international regulations companies cannot extract fossil fuels in Antarctica. And that is a good thing!
I surmise that the main reason that we have a "no mining" Antarctic treaty is that no nation thought it would ever be economic to mine there. Now, it will be a race to see whether greed will overturn the treaty or whether the economic system will fail first.
I suppose oil can be considered like a family fortune. It has taken the planet about 150,000,000 years to form the oil deposits, and over about 200 years it will mostly be gone.
If we were to believe the adage that it takes two generations in a family to form a fortune, then it is usually the third generation that loses it. If we were to think along those lines, it has taken the 'family' 80 years to amass this fortune, and only 2 1/2 hours for us (the third generation) to squander it.. ie, the oil deposits.
Nicely put Russell. Illustrating more dumb humans stuff well.
We are acting in defiance of Newton's Third law. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Blowback happens.
We are sanctioning torture. Planet Guantanemo Bay. Could be acting from Truth, facts, reality, but hey, facts are things you can push away from yourself. "Newton, who is he?"
Peak oil? Now it's peak cars.
Peter Newman compares the cost of constructing roads and railways and says both cost about $50million per kilometre. But rail carries 8-20 times the passengers carried by road.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3206293.htm
Biocrude could power Australian aviation
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2011/3212639.htm
Maybe this will 'slow' down the motorists and help a switch to bicycles. Sure to raise the hackles though.
Rockabye
The Global Fuel Economy Initiative aims at reducing car fuel consumption. It assumes that "happy motoring" will continue. I am convinced that this is not true. Sun2steam calls it a "kind of lazy goal", and I agree.
JeffBloggs cites the essay: "Global Hydrocarbons Peak" from Matthew Wild's website "Peak Generation". On-going topical blogs are on the homepage:
http://peakgeneration.blogspot.com/
I have just heard of a document called "The Rimini Protocol: an Oil Depletion Protocol". This protocol was originated by Colin Campbell, the Irish founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO).
Colin Campbell discusses his proposed protocol in a 2005 interview here:
http://old.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/611
Unfortunately, the UN-sponsored 2005 conference at Rimini did not advance the "Rimini Protocol" as intended.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/10661
From the draft protocol:
"...
WHEREAS it is expedient to plan an orderly transition to the new World environment of reduced energy supply, making early provisions to avoid the waste of energy, stimulate the entry of substitute energies, and extend the life of the remaining oil;
WHEREAS it is desirable to meet the challenges so arising in a co-operative and equitable manner, such to address related climate change concerns, economic and financial stability and the threats of conflicts for access to critical resources.
NOW IT IS PROPOSED THAT
1. A Convention of Nations shall be called to consider the issue with a view to agreeing an Accord with the following objectives:
a. to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that World oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
b. to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
c. to avoid destabilising financial flows arising from excessive oil prices;
d. to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
e. to stimulate the development of alternative energies.
2. Such an Accord shall have the following outline provisions:
a. No country shall produce oil at above its current Depletion Rate, such being defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount left to produce;
b. Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the current World Depletion Rate, deducting any indigenous production...."
Clearly, the world is not going to follow this path.
Clearly, there will be a lot of misery for most people as a result.
The text of Campbell's Oil Depletion Protocol is here:
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/media/oil_depletion_protocol.pdf
Catopsilia
Maybe we should rename the thread: "Peak Oil - Possibly one of the drivers for change?"
I am sure the makers of the Rimini Protocol are aware of the term and definition of capitalism? IE that our westernized economies are operating in direct conflict with all of the points in 1. and most of pt 2.? I can mostly agree with the proposed, but in what economic system can/will this function? Isn't it frightening to see that even the "experts" need to find there way back to the truth, that it's not about climate change at all, and continuation of the species can only be achieved through sustainability - of all aspects of life. A fundamental change will need to occur. A "rebirth of civilization", so to speak.
I say that all "problems" exist only in the minds of men/women, nature will simply take it's pre-determined path, even with us if we do not conform!
Jeffblogs, your suggestion of a thread name change to include "possibly" reminds me of a cartoon in "Dissent".
A sandwich-board man wears a placard: "The end is not necessarily nigh". He is saying "I like to think of myself as an interventionist."
I am thinking of getting a t-shirt bearing that message.
Cat lol
Yeah I know the feeling. We don't know what is good for us sometimes! Someone has to stand up and interfere with our self-annihilation activities! Might as well be us "greenies". Funny how survival of the fittest, has turned into survival of the self-destructing dummies - ie Western capitalists! I sometimes wonder which side is the real "freak" of nature!
A very good analysis of our current predicament is laid out in a new book "The Coming Famine" by Julian Cribb. The summary at the link below is well worth reading and sharing.
Scary stuff! Just doing some Google research around the above link I was shocked to find out that the last forecast of the worlds population does not expect a leveling off at bit more than 9 billion people but a continuing increase of the size of population over time.
This will not hit me anymore but I feel sorry for my grandchildren. (So far the population explosion is not my fault as I have only two grandchildren.)
Imagine the fun times we could have debating the coming 'food tax'!
S2S , I feel more responsible, went to 7 grandchildren last week.
"Imagine the fun times we could have debating the coming 'food tax'! "
Surely that should be a "Child Tax" ?
And if that doesn't work we could then have a "grandchildren tax"
Maybe we shouldn't joke about this. It looks pretty nasty
Yeah, but you know what's really funny - or ironic at least - after 'the crash' the Third World will get on with its daily business, growing food, fishing, collecting firewood etc.
We in the West will starve because their will be no fuel to get supplies to our supermarkets.
Beginning to look like Helen and Scott Nearing were onto something! And they coined the phrase 'The Good Life' to describe it.
People in the third world will continue suffering as many are already and this will increase until population falls very dramatically as their surrounding environment disappears from over use. The rich will pillage and plunder what's left to try and survive.
We have made sure that what is left won't sustain many people and will have wiped out natural food sources and the environment that used to do that job.
You only have to listen to the head of the IMF in her speech this morning. There is a very narrow path to regaining control of economic growth and only if all countries cooperate, which is unlikely. Change has already started.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-16/imf-boss-slams-feeble-leadership-for-economic-crisis/2901608
If you watch Catalyst on ABC Iview 16/9/11 you will see the view from space as the exponential rise in habitat destruction is easily seen. Astronaut John Grunsfield thinks at the current rate of destruction quote "There's no question that if we stay on planet earth and never leave that eventually we'll be wiped out".