peter7723
Member
An interesting article may be found at http://blogs.spectrum.ieee.org/tech_talk/2008/05/photovoltaic_moores_law_on_tra.html
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law accessed in 23 May 2008: "Moore's Law describes an important trend in the history of computer hardware: that the number of transistors that can be inexpensively placed on an integrated circuit is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two years".
This article states "The PV Moore
FYI - We pay $USD3.40 to $USD3.80/watt for big name brand panels here in China and these prices will drop further when Q Cell bring their new manufacturing plants on line here in China later this year. The Gobi desert is over 2m sqkm of silicon so there's no shortage of that here. Australia's middle men need to do the right thing and drop their prices.
Chinese panels are cheaper and getting better by the week.
This old prophecy appears to have happened as predicted in the post from China.
A good link from the Whirlpool forums on system payback is useful also.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArnXIvHcJfCzdFJEV3ZkaFkwVDVFUHE1SmxTSTNOM2c&hl=en
If US prices are any guide we are still paying about double compared to them.
CunningPlansDept
Member
Can anyone give some info on the links in the supply chain for PV in Australia?
I don't think we have any manufacturing plants here anymore, true?
Greg
Member
There is still a possibility for Australia, but I don't think it will help us in the near term.
http://www.sparksolar.com.au/
franks
Member
The bottom line is we in OZ have to pay more for PVs due to the small market and retail markups.
There has been some PVs from china starting to be sold on eBay and on line, under $5 per watt, some retailers still charging more than $10 per watt.
still not as cheap as in the USA
http://www.affordable-solar.com/solar-panels-by-the-pallet.htm
Take a look at the prices of Suntech Panels, less than %50 of the cost in OZ.
Question: If one sources your own panels from the USA does this invalidate your Solar Credits or indeed any REC's created. One would obviously need someone BCSE qualified to install the inverter and wire you up but this would mean we could get much larger systems for comparable to USA prices?
If you price a pallet of 25x60w Kaneka Panel from that site above @ $172US then divide that by 0.90 for our dollar conversion, include a 25% on the top for shipping and insurance plus a possible GST compnent rounding up to $7000AU this gives $280 per panel (4.66/w).
A brief search online gives an Aussie price of $550 ($9.10/w)... also scores you 186 REC's under Solar Credits!
franks
Member
If you look around, you have to look at alternative sources, there is a growing import business of PVs and renewable components, with the scrapping of the $8000 Grid rebate scheme and remote area power systems 50% rebate stopped, many are seeking other options.
Many owners are going out side of the BCSE accredited supplyers and installers using installes with help from there sparkie to connect 240volts and not bother of any rebates solar credits or RECS buybacks.
A self sourced system is 40-60% cheaper than a packaged system from the retailers of PV systems (bloated with solar credits and RECS buybacks)
Its interesting the comments on public fourms (whirlpool) about the pricing of PV components and the status quo of BCSE/CEC, many are asking is the status quo keeping prices of PV and Renew components high to comsumers.
rsigmund
Member
Hi franks
Cheep solar is great in some ways - like the (initial) hit to the back pocket however...
Some of the reasons to use an accredited installer are to do with safety! For example, poorly designed and or installed systems can (and are known to) cause fires! DC power has very different characteristics to AC with respect to fusing and arcing.
Also can you post a link to that whirlpool forum...
PV systems in Australia are a ripp-off compared to what you have to pay for an installed system overseas. And I don't think that a installation in Germany is of lower quality than in Australia.
It appears that some oligopoly is keeping the prices up here. As soon as I find a capable electrician I will look into organising my own import of solar panels. Different to solar collectors where certification according to Australian standards is an issue, there is no problem finding PV panels that qualify for rebates and feed-in tariff.
Sunshine
Member
sun2steam,
Solar PV is actually more expensive in Germany to install than in Australia.
My sister recently installed one there, a 5kW system come out to around $52,000, which is considerably more than the cost here.
However it is a concern that solar PV panels in the US are considering cheaper than here.
However, we don't source too many panels from the US, mainly Asia or Germany.
Sunshine
Member
PV panels are not country specific.
However in Australia, to receive the RECS and solar rebate, they need to be approved panels certified to a certain standard.
But I have read some of these certifications are self certification, not by an independent testing lab.
LanceTurner
Key Master
We have a PV buyers guide coming out in the next edition of ReNew (early December) and I can tell you that at least two companies are offering direct chinese import panels at under $5 a watt retail. I currently have a pair of the 80 watters on test at my place, build quality looks good, performance testing is ongoing, but all up I think they will be fine. Can't say about lifetime, but they don't appear as if they will have any issues...
franks
Member
The Prices for Chinese Monocrystals 80w PVs are around $350 or even cheaper from online sellers on eBay. I got a 85w Monocrystal Suntech STP085 PV for $275 on eBay.
Wholesale CEEG 170w Monocrystal PVs around $490 GST inclusive, if your in the trade.
What I undersrand Suntech and CEEG are the main OEM makers of PV Silicon in China, so much of the generic china PVs Silicon are made by them.
Lance great news on the next ReNew can't wait 
For those that are interested I have initiated a dialogue with the Affordable Solar mob in New Mexico USA and have asked for shipment rates to Sydney, Melbourne and the best place of all Adelaide!
Already have a price on a once off Goods In Transit insurance - also called Marine Insurance and are waiting on quotes from a couple of freight forwarders on a price from this end.
The plan is to get a set of quotes on the following pallets in the $3-4/watt range,
26x Suntech 175w
21x Suntech 280w
34x Sanyo Hybrid 195w & 205w
Kaneka panels would be low cost items but be the same in in freight as its a weight calculation.
I think costs will be less than $1/watt!
I've tried to select panels that you can get over here to compare apples with apples.
Looks like roughly its +15% of the pallet price on top of the currency conversion @ 0.93, GST at the end of it but if you sell it to yourself at cost then its -10% then +10%.
Sunshine is there a site with a list of approved panels, or do we wait for the ReNew?
Franks, You seem to know about panels, what is the voltage, does that matter or is that just the maximum amount of panels you can string together like say 15x 12v panels is 3 sets of 5 panels?
franks
Member
If you mean approved PVs, theres a list from the BCSE/CEC.
it only matters if you wish to claim a rebate, it must be desigened and installed with a BCSE person.
A system to be connected to the grid it only needs a circificate of eletrical saftey from a sparkie.
http://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/cec/accreditation/approvedproducts/pvmodulelist.html
Sunshine
Member
CNcandy,
Here's a good read for you, it tells you which Australian standards the panels must meet.
http://www.choice.com.au/Reviews-and-Tests/Household/Energy-and-water/Solar/Solar-panels-counting-the-cost/Page/Choosing%20a%20panel%20%20installer.aspx
There's a link to a list of panels/inverters which are accredited, but the link is broken.
Just be aware though, just because a panel is accredited, doesn't necessarily mean they are of equal quality though to another brand.
Sunshine
Member
CNCandy,
As far as working out what panels are suitable and what quantity of panels are required, it is not that easy.
There are so many variables of pitch, angle to north, temperature (range of 0 degrees to 70 degrees) and panel type, and inverter characteristics.
For a Sunnyboy SMA inverter use the following program, you will see that it is not so straightforward.
You will see the voltage output range will vary greatly for temperature range of 0 degrees to 70 degrees. You must keep the voltage range of the panel output within specification of the inverter input, otherwise you can fry the inverter.
At cool temperatures, the panels put out higher voltage, than with higher temperatures.
A friend of mine wasn't setup right, as on a 31-32 degree day, his inverter shut down due to too low voltage input.
Using that program below it showed that when panel temperature reached 52 degrees, the inverter would shut down. So on a 31-32 degree day, panel temp is around 52 degree range.
His fix was to add an extra 2 panels to increase voltage on hot days, but not too much to fry inverter on cold days!
http://www.sma-america.com/en_US/products/software/sunny-design.html
It's 37Mb file and use the additional Aust data file 12Mb are required.
I would favor the Sanyo HIP panels over the Kaneka ones, but probably end up going with a 170-200w Suntech or something similar.
As for my voltage question each panel listed on that site has a different voltage rating most are 12 or 24 but some are odd numbers like 30 or 50v.
47Mb is 0.13% of my monthly download!
Indeed...
I worked on using the Suntech 175w Panels with 26 on a Pallet as this seems to be a fairly widely used and a common panel size. I also rounded the weight up to 500Kg's which gave a higher number in case one wanted a heavier Pallet but it's not that much more as everything is a per Kg charge and also a cubic meter charge!
So
US$13,216 for the Pallet of 4.55Kw of Panels which @ $0.90 is about AU$14,700
AU$300 for a once off goods in transit insurance on that
AU$1300 for Adelaide
AU$1400 for Sydney & Melbourne - difference is the delivery truck
So your looking at around AU$16,500 for the 4.55Kw of Panels but as it's a Pallet you need a Forklift to unload it. I've got a friend with a nearby warehouse so that's not problem for me. If you buy those panels over here they seem to be around $1200 each - $31,000 - not quite half price!
Split that between 3 friends or family @ $5500 each ( paid entirely by Solar Credits ) and you've got your 1.5Kw. Find one friend with $8.5k and get a 2.25Kw! Buy your inverter pay a BSCE certified sparkie to install it.
If you throw in an SMA 3000TL Inverter (97% Efficient) at AU$2750 ($4750 over here) but not including freight you save almost another $2k! All the wireless meters and stuff are a bargain price like the SMA webbox which is AU$800 its double that over here!
If you can organise a nice sized buying group (?) one can fit about 20 Pallets in 20' Container and that price is about $5200 or $6000 for a 40'. You then divide that by your 20 Pallets and its about $250 per pallet not the $1400 so there's another grand each.
We are paying an absolute fortune for everything, 50% is quite a generous profit margin on plain parts considering there's no moving parts and everything carries such a long warranty!
You should get a GST credit in the same way that an entity registered pays none, not quite sure will look into that one.
AQIS & Customs charges I will report on that one when the I get those details...
Also the above was for Ocean Freight (Peak Tariff), ETA was 5-6weeks and included a metro area delivery.
franks
Member
CNCandy, Thanks for your good research your comferming something we all know, I posted the same comments and even gave links about cheap wholesale PV components on the Energymatters Fourm, my posts were deleated, Whirlpool fourm people asking the same questions.
Its good what your doing as more of us will ask the questions why is it so expensive eg stand alone inverters cost under 75c per watt of capacity, grid invters $2-3per watt.
Im sure in time Bunnings will sell PV components and will pay relastic costs, the problem the Renew Power restail sector is the small size and the high profit margins fleeced from us comsumers
